Tuesday, May 1, 2012

The stock market goes up

Peter Schiff adamantly recommends getting out of the dollar. His presentation, if correct, will be devastating for this country and wipe out the wealth of the middle class. All of what he says is correct, although his timing may be off. Furthermore, there is the possibility that our government might change course, although I, like Schiff, feel that unlikely. His recommendation to own “real stuff” is correct. If the stock market goes up, I doubt whether it will keep pace with inflation. The best performing stock market in the world in recent years has been Zimbabwe, but it did not keep pace with their inflation.
So, what to do? If as some believe that the dollar will decline by 50% from here over the next 10 years, then having your funds outside the dollar (in other currencies) would presumably produce a 7% average return per year. Investing in foreign stocks would provide that 7% plus the returns (or losses) obtained in foreign stock markets. Precious metals, as money substitutes, should do well. So should natural resources and other hard assets like land. Foreign resource stocks might do especially well.
None of this is meant to be investment advice. If what Schiff (and I) fear comes true, some of the above might be reasonable investments/hedges. On the other hand, all of the above comments would be 180 degrees wrong if we were to end up in deflation instead of inflation.
Schiff was very emotional, practically begging people to get out of the dollar. I suspect the economy and markets over the next year or two will justify his emotion. Whether his scenario results or not, is the more difficult issue.

1 comment:

  1. From my experience the best investors are mature in their thinking and have realistic investment expectations. They measure their personal investment horizon in months and years - rather than weeks or days.
    maria jones

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