Thursday, April 19, 2012

It was a good transaction

By midday, Goldman Sachs and Wachovia were making rapid progress toward completing a deal. Peter Weinberg, Bob Steel’s main adviser and a former Goldman man, had constructed the outlines of an agreement. Just then, Joseph Neubauer, a Wachovia board member and the C.E.O. of Aramark, who was on hand at Goldman, got a call on his cell phone. It was Paulson. “This is not just about Goldman Sachs,” Paulson said, pressing him to do the deal. “I’m concerned about Wachovia. Aren’t you concerned?”
When Neubauer put down the phone, he looked at his fellow directors. “You’re not going to believe this. That was Hank.”
Warren Buffett was at his home in Omaha when he received a phone call from Byron Trott, a vice-chairman at Goldman Sachs. Buffett, who dislikes most Wall Street bankers, adored Trott, a mild-mannered midwesterner based in Chicago. For the past several weeks Trott had been trying in vain to persuade Buffett to make an investment in Goldman, but he had now come up with a new idea. He disclosed to Buffett that Goldman was in talks to buy Wachovia, with government assistance, and wanted to know whether Buffett might be interested in investing in a combined Goldman-Wachovia.

At first, Buffett wasn’t sure he was hearing Trott correctly. Government assistance? In a Goldman deal?
“Byron, it’s a waste of time,” he said in his folksy way after considering the new configuration. “By tonight the government will realize they can’t provide capital to a deal that’s being done by the former firm of the Treasury secretary with the company of a former vice-chairman of Goldman Sachs and former deputy Treasury secretary. There is no way. They’ll all wake up and realize, even if it was the best deal in the world, they can’t do it.”
John Mack had received some promising news that afternoon: Mitsubishi looked like it would actually pull through and make a sizable investment in Morgan Stanley. A conference call had been arranged for Mack to speak with Mitsubishi’s chief executive, Nobuo Kuroyanagi, that evening.
Just as they were going over the details, however, Paulson called.
“John, you have to do something,” Paulson said sternly.
“What do you mean I have to do something?” he asked, his voice rising with impatience, explaining that he had just learned that the Japanese were inclined to do the deal. “You’ve been so supportive—you said we can get through this.”
“I know,” Paulson said, “but you’ve got to find a partner.”
“I have the Japanese! Mitsubishi is going to come in,” he repeated, as if Paulson hadn’t heard him the first time around.
“Come on. You and I know the Japanese. They’re not going to do that. They’ll never move that quickly,” Paulson said, suggesting that Mack focus more on the deal with the Chinese or JPMorgan.
“No, I do know them. And I know I don’t agree with you,” Mack answered angrily. He explained that Mitsubishi had used Morgan Stanley as an adviser during its hostile bid for a part of Union Bank in California earlier in the year. “Japanese rarely do a hostile,” Mack reminded him. “They hired us, they followed through and got it done, so they’ll come through for us.”
Paulson was still skeptical. “They won’t do it,” he said with a sigh.
“You and I disagree,” Mack sputtered.
Calling Kevin Warsh out of a meeting at the Fed to come to the phone, Gary Cohn outlined the preliminary Goldman-Wachovia terms for him. They had agreed to a deal at market—Friday’s closing price of $18.75—and considering that Wachovia’s stock had jumped 29 percent that day on the back of the tarp news, Cohn thought it was a generous concession.
But then he wound up for his big pitch: to complete the deal, he said, Goldman would need the government to guarantee, or ring-fence, Wachovia’s entire portfolio of pay-option arm mortgages—all $122 billion worth.
Warsh stopped Cohn in midsentence. “We’re just not prepared to do that,” he said. “We can’t look as if we’re just writing a blank check.” He suggested that if they structured it so that Goldman would take a first loss—in the same way that JPMorgan had agreed to accept the first $1 billion of losses at Bear Stearns before the Federal Reserve would step in and guarantee the next $29 billion—the government might well consider acting as a backstop.
At Treasury, Jim Wilkinson, Paulson’s chief of staff, was by now practically sleepwalking down the halls. Paulson had just updated him on the Goldman-Wachovia talks and asked him for his counsel. Should the government provide assistance? Wilkinson, in his stupor, said he thought that it sounded like a reasonable idea.
But a half-hour later, after a cup of coffee and further reflection, Wilkinson changed his mind. He realized that such a deal would be a public-relations nightmare at the worst possible time, just as they were trying to pass tarp. Paulson would lose all credibility; he would be accused of lining the pockets of his friends at Goldman; the “Government Sachs” conspiracy theories would flourish.
Wilkinson ran back into Paulson’s office. “Hank, if you do this, you’ll get killed,” Wilkinson said frantically. “It would be fucking crazy.”
Ben Bernanke was being piped in over the speakerphone in Geithner’s conference room, where Warsh was reviewing the new terms of the Goldman-Wachovia agreement. Cohn and Steel had come back to him with a slight revision to the previous proposal, allowing for Goldman Sachs to take the first $1 billion of losses, per Warsh’s suggestion. Cohn and Steel said they were committed to completing the deal that afternoon if the government would agree to provide assistance. The boards of both companies had been put on standby.
The general view in the room seemed to be that it was a good transaction, but Geithner was quick to point out its drawbacks. “Does it make Goldman look weaker than they are?” he asked—a question Blankfein had raised earlier in the day. Geithner also wondered whether the Fed should be the one lending the money. Since Wachovia’s regulator was the F.D.I.C., perhaps it ought to be the one to bear that burden.
Terry Checki from the New York Fed couldn’t believe the gall of Goldman’s request. “They’re still driving these negotiations as though they have leverage,” he said. But he opposed the merger for a different reason: he was concerned that neither side had enough time to make a thoughtful decision, referring to the situation as “the shotgun-wedding syndrome.”
Then the New York Fed’s Bill Dudley, a former Goldman man himself, who thought the deal was unattractive for the government, raised the same objection that Buffett had raised just hours earlier: it would prove a public-relations disaster for the government.
“What are we doing here?” Dudley asked. “Look at all of the connections you’ve got: Treasury and Steel and me. Goldman is everywhere. We have to be careful.”
After Geithner and Bernanke called Paulson, all three agreed: they just couldn’t support the deal.
When Warsh delivered the news to Steel and Cohn, both men were flabbergasted. They had spent the last 24 hours trying to formulate an agreement at the behest of the government and were now being told it could not be carried out.
 How did the economy get into this mess? Visit our archive “Charting the Road to Ruin.” Illustration by Brad Holland.
“I’m sorry. I understand—I’m just as frustrated as you are. We just don’t have the money; we don’t have the authorization,” Warsh explained.
Steel, feeling particularly slighted, told Warsh that he felt as if he were running from one bride to another, trying to find the right marriage to save his firm. First Morgan Stanley, and now Goldman Sachs.
Cohn, realizing that the conversation was about to get testy, said, “I think I should step out.”
“No, you should listen to this,” Steel insisted, raising his voice for the first time. “You should sit here and listen to every goddamn word of this.”
Anxiously talking into the speakerphone in the center of the table, Steel became even more irate. “What do you want me to do? Tell me what to do? You can’t make this work, you don’t like this, you don’t like that. Do you want to do the Midtown deal?” he said, referring to Morgan Stanley. “Do you want me to call Citi? I’ve got to protect my shareholders. That’s my job. Just tell me what the fuck you want me to do because I’m tired of running in circles.”
Paulson had gotten word that the Goldman-Wachovia deal was off, which put even more pressure on him to find a solution for Morgan Stanley. To him, JPMorgan was the obvious answer. While Dimon may have been resisting Paulson’s overtures—Paulson had broached the subject with him several times already over the past day—Paulson felt he now needed to apply some serious pressure.
“Jamie,” Paulson said when he reached him, conferencing in Geithner and Bernanke, “I need you to really think about buying Morgan Stanley. It’s a great company with great assets.”
Dimon, who had been anticipating that the government might try to foist the deal on him, was adamant.
“You’ve got to stop. This is not doable,” he said intently. “It’s not possible. I would do anything for you and for this country, but not if it’s going to jeopardize JPMorgan.
“Even if you gave it to me, I couldn’t do it,” Dimon continued, explaining that he thought the deal would cost the bank $50 billion and countless jobs.
“I don’t want to do it, and John doesn’t want to do it,” Dimon told him.
“Well, I might need you to do it,” Paulson persisted.
A few moments of silence passed until Dimon relented, but only slightly. “We’ll consider it, but it’s going to be tough,” he said.
At about 3:30 p.m., John Mack’s assistant announced that Secretary Paulson was on the line. “Hi, John. I’m on with Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner. We want to talk to you,” Paulson said.
“Well,” Mack said, “since you’re all on the line, can I put my general counsel on?”
Paulson agreed, and Mack hit the speakerphone button after the television was muted.
“Markets can’t open Monday without a resolution of Morgan Stanley,” Paulson told him in the sternest way he knew. “You need to find a solution—we want you to do a deal.”
Mack just listened, dumbstruck.
Bernanke, who was usually remote and silent in such situations, cleared his throat and added, “You don’t see what we see. We’re trying to keep the system safe. We really need you to do a deal.”
“We’ve spent a lot of time working on this and we think you need to call Jamie,” Geithner insisted.
“Tim, I called Jamie,” Mack replied, clearly exasperated. “He doesn’t want the bank.”
“No, he’ll buy it,” Geithner said.
“Yes. For a dollar!” Mack exclaimed. “That makes no sense.”
“We want you to do this,” Geithner persisted.
“Let me ask you a question: Do you think this is good public policy?” Mack asked, clearly furious. “There are 35,000 jobs that have been lost in this city between A.I.G., Lehman, Bear Stearns, and just layoffs. And you’re telling me that the right thing to do is to take 45,000 to 50,000 people, put them in play, and have 20,000 jobs disappear? I don’t see how that’s good public policy.”
For a moment, there was silence on the phone.
“It’s about soundness,” Geithner said impassively.
“Well, look, I have the utmost respect for the three of you and what you’re doing,” Mack said. “You are patriots, and no one in our country can thank you enough for that. But I won’t do it. I just won’t do it. I won’t do it to the 45,000 people that work here.”
The Morgan Stanley bankers were still waiting to find out if the Mitsubishi deal was a go. The Fed, they had learned, was going to grant them bank-holding-company status (and likely Goldman, too), but Geithner was still insisting the firm needed a big investment by Monday as a show of confidence in the company. Mitsubishi had sent over a proposal, a “letter of intent,” to buy up to 20 percent of the firm for as much as $9 billion. But all they were getting was a letter; it wouldn’t be an ironclad contract, as they couldn’t get a full deal turned around quickly enough. But they were just hoping investors in the market would take the Japanese at their word and have more faith in them than Paulson or Geithner did.
Upstairs, Mack was on the phone with Mitsubishi’s chief executive, Nobuo Kuroyanagi, and a translator trying to nail down the letter of intent. His assistant interrupted him, whispering, “Tim Geithner is on the phone—he has to talk to you.”
Cupping the receiver, Mack said, “Tell him I can’t speak now. I’ll call him back.”
Five minutes later, Paulson called. “I can’t. I’m on with the Japanese. I’ll call him when I’m off,” he told his assistant.
Two minutes later, Geithner was back on the line. “He says he has to talk to you and it’s important,” Mack’s assistant reported helplessly.
Mack was minutes away from reaching an agreement. He looked at Ji-Yeun Lee, who was standing in his office helping with the deal, and told her, “Cover your ears.”
“Tell him to get fucked,” Mack said of Geithner. “I’m trying to save my firm.”
‘Thank God. We’re out!” Jamie Dimon exclaimed as he ran across JPMorgan’s executive floor into his colleague Jimmy Lee’s office, where the management team had camped out waiting for their next orders, watching the Ryder Cup and the New York Giants game, chowing down on steaks from the Palm.
“Mack just called,” Dimon said, breathing a sigh of relief. “They got $9 billion from the Japanese!”

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